The cascade

A modern supply chain is a sequence of bets on other people's competence. When one link breaks, the disruption travels — often through stages most of the world has never heard of — until it arrives somewhere familiar. Walk one such cascade, step by step.

Figure
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Press Next to follow a single helium shortage as it travels through the chain that ends at your AI cluster.

  1. 1
    Helium production tightens in Qatar
    Qatar supplies roughly a third of the world's helium. A maintenance shutdown reduces output for six months.
  2. 2
    SK Hynix throttles HBM lines
    High-bandwidth memory fabrication uses helium for cooling and leak detection. With supply rationed, output drops.
  3. 3
    NVIDIA's H100 supply contracts
    Each H100 GPU is paired with stacks of HBM. Less HBM means fewer finished GPUs leaving TSMC's packaging plants.
  4. 4
    Hyperscaler cluster build-outs slip
    The cloud providers placing orders months in advance now see deliveries pushed out by two quarters.
  5. 5
    Frontier AI training timelines stretch
    An obscure gas in one country has just decided when the next generation of models arrives, everywhere.

Part of Deeply Interdependent in Ex Machina. Other explorables.